Assessment of Climate Change over the Indian Region


  • Recently the Union Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) has released the “Assessment of Climate Change over the Indian Region” Report.

About the Report: 

  • It is India’s first-ever national forecast on the impact of global warming on the subcontinent in the coming century.
  • The average surface air temperatures over India could rise by up to 4.4°C by the end of the century as compared to the period between 1976 and 2005.
  • The rise in temperatures will be even more pronounced in the Hindu Kush-Himalayan region where the average could reach 5.2°C.
  • By 2100, the frequency of warm days and warm nights might also increase by 55 per cent and 70 per cent respectively, as compared to the period 1976-2005.
  • The incidences of heat waves over the country could also increase by three to four times. Their duration of occurrence might also increase which was already witnessed by the country in 2019.
  • Between 1900 and 2018,the average temperatures of India rose by 0.7°C.
  • Even if the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) declared by countries under the Paris Agreement 2015 are met, the global average temperature could rise by around 3°C, which could be disastrous.

What is Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)?

  • A Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) is a greenhouse gas concentration (not emissions) trajectory adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
  • It is defined as a radiative force in watt per square metre due to the rising greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the atmosphere.
  • The pathways describe different climate futures, all of which are considered possible depending on the volume of greenhouse gases (GHG) emitted in the years to come.

About IPCC

  • The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) is an intergovernmental body of the United Nations.
  • The IPCC was established in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP).
  • The IPCC produces reports that contribute to the work of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

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