Ensemble Prediction Systems


  • IMD has launched systems for probabilistic weather forecasting known as Ensemble Prediction Systems (EPS).

About the System:

  • The India Met Department (IMD) has launched two “very high resolution” Ensemble Prediction Systems.
  • These are to generate ten-day probabilistic weather forecasts.
  • The new systems in place can provide rainfall forecasts with probabilities allowing better lead time to prepare for extreme weather events.
  • These systems also use a higher resolution 12 km grid scale, instead of the 23 km resolution that has been in use.
  • These systems will improve upon the existing deterministic forecasts that are prone to high margins of errors.
  • The new system will tell us the probability of rainfall according to its intensity and volume.
  • This will be colour coded for ease of interpretation.
  • These systems will also help disaster management authorities in making better emergency response decisions.
  • But these particular systems are specifically for rainfall, though it can be tweaked to provide similar forecasts for thunderstorms, cold waves and weather events.
  • Also, this model will not specifically be helpful in providing the exact nature and intensity of thunderstorms.


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