What is green lumber fallacy in logic?

  • This refers to the erroneous belief that a person with huge domain knowledge also has the skill to apply such knowledge profitably. By the same logic, a person need not know everything about a field in order to make money in it.
  • He only needs to possess the most important and relevant knowledge about the field.
  • The green lumber fallacy was first noted by Turkish intellectual Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his 2012 book Antifragile. Dr. Taleb used the example of a commodity trader who made huge profits by trading green lumber (which refers to freshly cut trees) despite believing that he was actually trading timber that was painted in green.


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